Pattern Identification – Birds and Business

September 3rd, 2008

See the original post here. The post describes an interview with a birder and a doctor. They discuss similarities between pattern recognition in bird identification, medical diagnosis and business. Here’s an insightful quote:

HBR: Can you describe how you begin to identify patterns? In business pattern recognition still seems to be more of an art than a science.

Sibley:

Pattern finding in birding is scientific in the sense that it is very deductive. I’m aware that there are patterns out there…and I try to fit my observations to patterns. It’s like making hypotheses and then testing them.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

  • How is pattern finding in your business more like an art or more like a science?
  • Do you tend to create a hypothesis then look for patterns to prove it…or…do you tend to gather patterns then develop a hypothesis that explains the patterns?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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The Numerati – Automating Management at IBM

August 31st, 2008

The week’s BusinessWeek coverstory is right up our alley.  Stephen Baker, a writer for BW,  published an interesting cover story with accompanying podcast, blog article and book excerpt.  The last link includes a video interview with the author.  How’s that for hitting the subject from all media angles.  (Good for you BW!)

The book excerpt discusses a move at IBM to “automate management”.

One of the most promising laboratories for the Numerati is the workplace, where every keystroke, click, and e-mail can be studied. In a chapter called “The Worker,” Baker travels to IBM where mathematicians are building predictive models of their own colleagues.

The book, The Numerati, is due out this month.  Certainly on my too read list.

Sounds a little like Big Blue trying to be like Big Brother.  Sounds a little scary but if used to match skills to the best jobs it makes total sense.  What do you think?

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Lighter Side of Charting

August 30th, 2008

I bumped into GraphJam.com the other day and had to chuckle.  Like many folks, I’ve spent many a minute trying to perfect a chart or graph in order to relay just the right message.  Well, graphjam.com reminds us not to take our graphs too seriously.  At this site, users upload their favorite graphical representations of, well, just about anything…song lyrics, puns, political outcomes.  Here are a couple of favorites:

Hotel California:
song chart memes

The wall
song chart memes

Billy Joel
song chart memes

Need some humor in creating your own charts?  Try the book for Dummies:

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The Analytics of Bird Watching

August 25th, 2008

A few months ago I mentioned that the bookHow Doctors Think reminded me of an article I had read discussing analytics involved in bird identification and disease diagnosis.  While going through some old files the other day in preparation for an office move, I actually found the original article!  It wasn’t published in a birding or nature magazine.  It wasn’t published in a medical journal.  No, it was published in the August 2002 issue of Harvard Business Review!

The article is a Q&A with birders David Sibley and Julia Yoshida.  Sibley is one of the foremost birding experts in the world.  (I met him a few years ago and own several of his books.)  Yoshida is both a birder and medical doctor.  In the article they discuss the importance of pattern recognition to their respective fields and HBR makes the connections to business.

I found a number of insightful concepts in the article — too many to mention in one post.  Over the next few weeks, I’ll share a few of them.  Here’s a starter:

The ability to grasp complicated phenomena and discern possible trends from seemingly random events can be a source of competitive advantage, allowing managers to capitalize on opportunities before they are apparent to others…To thrive in an information-rich world, executives need to be adept at pattern recognition.  They can learn a lot from expert-birdwatchers.

You can purchase the article at the HBR web-site.

Amazon carries the books mentioned in the article including:

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How Doctors Think

July 14th, 2008

I read How Doctors Think this weekend while working in the yard.  (OK, I was listening to the audiobook on my iPod.)  Fascinating book!  The book is based on the personal experience and field research of the author Dr. Jerome Goopman.  It delves into the decision making process — sometimes faulty — of the modern medical doctor.  To me the book was one part fascinating and one part scary!

It made me think of a Harvard Business Review article I read several years ago that discussed the analytics of bird watching!  (I’m an avid birder.)  The connection?  One of the interviewees was a doctor and the article drew parallels between analytics in business, identification of birds in the field and diagnosis of illness.  I’ll need to find that one and share it.

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Probability Analysis of Putting

June 21st, 2008

Ian Ayres, author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart has an interesting post at the Freakonomics blog.  In response to Tiger’s dramatic win at the U.S. Open, Ayres wonders why we don’t see more probability analysis of sinking a put from certain distances by certain players.  We seem to be obsessed with statistical minutia in other sports but golf is relatively untouched.  Granted there may be a few more variables in putting such as the cut of the green, location of the ball, direction of role, etc. but it would be fun to make some predictions.  Better yet, how about a hypothesis or two?

For instance and for my own game…

  • Do I have a better shot at sinking a mid-range put than a short put because I feel I have less at stake so I relax more on the longer put?
  • Does the number of stokes taken to get to the green have a bearing on the probability of making certains puts?  Do I relax more when I’ve already blown the hole versus when I have a shot at an eagle?
  • What’s the relationship between warm up time on the practice green to puts made on the real greens?

What do you think?

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Progress on Prediction Markets

May 11th, 2008

On the Freakonmics blog, Justin Wolfers discusses some of the progress made related to the adoption of prediction markets in the US. Like many innovative ideas, progress can be stalled through legal hurdles. Wolfers’ asks:

Are prediction markets legitimate business tools, an alternative set of securities markets requiring SEC regulation, illegal betting markets, allowable games of skill, or something else altogether?

That’s a meaty question if there ever was one. Wolfers’ goes on to describe actions taken by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to help sort it out including determining whether or not the markets fall into their jurisdiction.

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How to Measure Anything [Mind Map]

May 8th, 2008

This is a bit of an experimental post. I have been mind mapping How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of “Intangibles” in Business while reading the book. I use FreeMind because it is free and easy to use. While trying to find a way to publish my mind maps to the web (eventually to http://wikibooknotes.org) I found MindMeister.com which allows editing maps online by multiple people. I signed up for a free account, uploaded the FreeMind file, and clicked share. Now I can embed this map into my blog. Try repositioning the map by dragging within it’s window. Expand and contract nodes by clicking.

If you’d like to try editing the map, leave a comment for this blog post with your email address and I’ll send you an invitation. (Your address will not appear in the post.)

Here goes…

See How to Measure Anything for a direct link to the map or click the map above.

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Name of the Game or Visualization of Presidential Debates

April 30th, 2008


This amazing, interactive visualization was put together by the folks at the NY Times. It diagrams communication patterns of Presidential debate participants through mid-December 2007. In a nutshell, a line is drawn from one candidate to another each time the first candidate mentions the name of the other during the debate. To fully appreciate it, checkout the original and play for a bit. There’s a tremendous amount of information in one graphic including:

  • Number of debates a candidate participated in (represented by slice)
  • Political affiliation (represented by color
  • Number of references a candidate made to other candidates (number of outgoing arrows)
  • Number of references made to a particular candidate from other candidates (incoming arrows)
  • Timing of such references within a particular debate (location of out going arrow)
  • Timing of references over time (slices are organized by sequence of debates)

The technique is relatively simple but yet powerful. Though it may look like the output of my childhood spirograph, it is more like an inter-relationship digraph and generates interesting observations such as:

  • Democrats apparently talk about each other much more than the republicans
  • Democrat candidates that dropped earlier tended to be referenced fewer times (no surprise)
  • Every candidate mentioned Clinton at least once

What do you see?

Thanks to A Beautiful WWW for bringing this to my attention!

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Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos on Innovation

April 22nd, 2008

BusinessWeek published an interesting interview with Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon.com. As a big Amazon.com customer/fan, I’m intrigued by his thoughts on innovation. Here are a few tid-bits:

  • There’s no bad time to innovate.
  • Frugality drives innovation. One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.
  • You have to be willing to be misunderstood if you’re going to innovate.
  • Skills-focused companies focus on what they can do which puts a finite lifetime on a company. A more stable strategy is to start with “what do my customers need?”
  • You know that when your harshest critics are among your best customers, you can’t be doing that badly.

He includes examples of innovation at Amazon.com such as the Kindle e-book reader. Which, by the way, is on my wish list. I’d love to review one for you but first I’d need to get one in my own hands. Check it out at Kindle: Amazon’s New Wireless Reading Device.

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