Quick: What is the average processing speed of the human brain?
Gong!: You took too long!

Technology Review posted a recent article on new ways to measure human brain processing speed which suggest an upper limit of 60 bits per second.

Seem reasonable?  I’m not sure. I’ll need to think about it a little longer.

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HBR:  Does randomness have a role to play in birding?

Sibley:

Even then these vagrant birds (ones not expected to be in a certain location) tend to show up in places that have a pattern of rare birds turning up.  So they’re probably not random occurrence but a pattern we haven’t worked out yet.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• Can you think of a time that an apparent set of random data turned out to be an undiscovered pattern?  What was it?
• How do you avoid claiming a random situation too early?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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HBR: One of the toughest challenges in pattern recognition is knowing when you’ve looked at enough information to make a reliable judgment.  At what point can you be certain that the pattern you’ve identified is real?

Sibley:

Identification is never 100% certain.  Even field marks aren’t completely dependable, so you have to have an idea of how reliable each mark is or how reliable your judgment of it is, how well you saw it.   [Example:]  OK, there are three 90% characteristics that point this way and a couple of 50% or 70% characteristics that point that way, so I’ll go to the 90% side.  The identification may or may not be correct, but that’s the more likely choice.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• How do you know when enough is enough?
• How do you assign probabilities to the factors used to recognize patters?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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HBR:  What’s the most common mistake a beginner makes in trying to identify a pattern – or, in this case, a bird?

Sibley:

Beginners usually latch on to common characteristics; they focus on similarities rather than differences…Once you’ve mastered common patterns, the real trick is to educate yourself about where discrepancies are most likely to appear — and to concentrate your attention on those areas.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• What similarities can through you off-track when examining a pattern?
• How have you focused on areas that are most likely to show discrepancies?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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HBR: One of the goals of pattern recognition is to quickly narrow down your set of possibilities.  As birders, is there a particular thing you look for first?

Sibley (paraphrased):

[By answering the following,] you can narrow down the likely possibiliites to a handful of species.

1. Where am I and what time of year give a broad idea of which species may be present.
2. Type of habitat the bird is in and what it is doing.
3. The overall size of the bird.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• What are the two or three things you look at first when examining a business pattern?
• How do you avoid wearing “blinders” that take you down the wrong path?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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HBR: Can you describe how you begin to identify patterns? In business pattern recognition still seems to be more of an art than a science.

Yoshida:

Birders are also using new information from molecular biology and field ornithology.  This information expands the repertoire of possible patterns…As new ways to process data emerge, new patterns are discovered.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• What new patterns have emerged in your business as a result of new ways of processing the data?
• What patterns are evident now but perhaps not visible ten or twenty years ago?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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HBR: Can you describe how you begin to identify patterns? In business pattern recognition still seems to be more of an art than a science.

Sibley:

Pattern finding in birding is scientific in the sense that it is very deductive. I’m aware that there are patterns out there…and I try to fit my observations to patterns. It’s like making hypotheses and then testing them.

ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:

• How is pattern finding in your business more like an art or more like a science?
• Do you tend to create a hypothesis then look for patterns to prove it…or…do you tend to gather patterns then develop a hypothesis that explains the patterns?

Use the comments to contribute.

Purchase full the HBR article here.

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The article is a Q&A with birders David Sibley and Julia Yoshida.  Sibley is one of the foremost birding experts in the world.  (I met him a few years ago and own several of his books.)  Yoshida is both a birder and medical doctor.  In the article they discuss the importance of pattern recognition to their respective fields and HBR makes the connections to business.

I found a number of insightful concepts in the article — too many to mention in one post.  Over the next few weeks, I’ll share a few of them.  Here’s a starter:

The ability to grasp complicated phenomena and discern possible trends from seemingly random events can be a source of competitive advantage, allowing managers to capitalize on opportunities before they are apparent to others…To thrive in an information-rich world, executives need to be adept at pattern recognition.  They can learn a lot from expert-birdwatchers.

You can purchase the article at the HBR web-site.

Amazon carries the books mentioned in the article including:

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