Enough is Enough – Birds and Business
Posted by John in Articles, Birds and Business, Lighter Side, Patterns, Probability analysisSee the original post here. The post describes an interview with a birder and a doctor. They discuss similarities between pattern recognition in bird identification, medical diagnosis and business. Here’s an insightful quote:
HBR: One of the toughest challenges in pattern recognition is knowing when you’ve looked at enough information to make a reliable judgment. At what point can you be certain that the pattern you’ve identified is real?
Sibley:
Identification is never 100% certain. Even field marks aren’t completely dependable, so you have to have an idea of how reliable each mark is or how reliable your judgment of it is, how well you saw it. [Example:] OK, there are three 90% characteristics that point this way and a couple of 50% or 70% characteristics that point that way, so I’ll go to the 90% side. The identification may or may not be correct, but that’s the more likely choice.
ThinkingAnalytically discussion starters:
- How do you know when enough is enough?
- How do you assign probabilities to the factors used to recognize patters?
Use the comments to contribute.
Purchase full the HBR article here.
Entries (RSS)