I enjoyed Tom Davenport’s (author of Competing on Analytics) recent predictions on prediction markets in his Next Big Thing blog at Harvard Business Press.
Predictably, he asks if prediction markets are “the next big thing.” (Ok, enough with the prediction puns.)
Here are his observations regarding culture and markets:
For a company culture to value prediction markets, its culture would need to have certain (rare) attributes:
- Confidence that executives have valuable roles to play even if they don’t always have the right answer;
- A high level of trust in the intelligence and capabilities of employees;
- The willingness to follow numbers and analysis wherever they lead (as long as they are more-or-less consistent with common sense);
- A pretty strong analytical and financial orientation (since futures markets aren’t something that every Joe or Jane understands).
If you catch his post, be sure to check out the discussion that follows.
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